The results of the Finnish parliamentary election are in and the centre-right reached heights that are rare for them. This marks the first time since 1933 that the Centre Party and the right-wing National Coalition Party hold over 100 seats put together. The Centre narrowly held on to their spot as the biggest party with 51 seats and Centre leader Matti Vanhanen will almost certainly continue as the Prime Minister. The Coalition got 50 seats, an increase of 10 seats from the 2003 election, and are now the most likely choice to be the Centre's main government partner.
The Social Democratic Party fell to one of their worst results ever, 45 seats, down from 53. When the socialist Left Alliance got their worst result of all time with 17 seats, down by two, I do believe the Finnish labour movement parties as a whole slumped to their worst result ever. The only bright spot for the left was the left liberal Green League, who got one extra spot and in the process increased their chances of getting into the government.
On the undercard, the populist True Finns beat their poll results handily and increased their seat total to five, up from three. The socially conservative Christian Democrats held on to their seven seats. The right liberal Swedish People's Party also increased their seats, now up one to 9 (or 10, if we count the Åland MP), and will be once again vying for a spot in the government.
One fact symbolizes this result: The Coalition's 2006 presidential candidate and former Minister of Finance Sauli Niinistö smashed the individual vote record previously held by Hertta "daughter of Otto Wille" Kuusinen of the communist Finnish People's Democratic League, dating to a time when a candidate could run in several electoral districts.
The Social Democratic Party fell to one of their worst results ever, 45 seats, down from 53. When the socialist Left Alliance got their worst result of all time with 17 seats, down by two, I do believe the Finnish labour movement parties as a whole slumped to their worst result ever. The only bright spot for the left was the left liberal Green League, who got one extra spot and in the process increased their chances of getting into the government.
On the undercard, the populist True Finns beat their poll results handily and increased their seat total to five, up from three. The socially conservative Christian Democrats held on to their seven seats. The right liberal Swedish People's Party also increased their seats, now up one to 9 (or 10, if we count the Åland MP), and will be once again vying for a spot in the government.
One fact symbolizes this result: The Coalition's 2006 presidential candidate and former Minister of Finance Sauli Niinistö smashed the individual vote record previously held by Hertta "daughter of Otto Wille" Kuusinen of the communist Finnish People's Democratic League, dating to a time when a candidate could run in several electoral districts.
7 comments:
Good work on the coverage of these elections, chaps - I still don't pretend to have the first clue about Finnish politics, but your posts over the last few weeks are a top-notch starting point, which I plan to go back and read in depth when I get a spare moment.
Any chance of a follow-up explaining how this might affect Finland's attitude towards the rest of the EU at some point, or is it still - as I suspect - far too early to tell?
nosemonkey, thanks. I'm planning to write something on how the result is likely to influence Finland's EU policy, but at first I'd like to be certain that it's really going to be the Centre and the Coalition as the main partners. The name of the next Foreign Minister would be nice to know, too, but not strictly needed to speculate.
I guess this feeling of mine is called astonishment.
When I made this blog's first predictions some six weeks ago, I considered almost certain that the incumbent government would carry on, probably with some minor changes. After that, though, the race started to narrow and it became possible that the National Coalition (let's go with Ari's nomenclature from now on) could challenge the SDP over the second place. The Centre's victory felt obvious all the time, and when we summed it up yesterday evening the chances for any kind of drama seemed rather small. I've to admit that my people surprised me this time.
- The Centre lost a good bunch of Euroskeptics to the True Finns; what I personally described as a party of village idiots caught the pollsters their pants down. The Centre's urbanisation process is altering the countryside's political landscape.
- The SDP got its slap in the face. Their attempts to appear as the force of conservation backfired big time, and if they're to come back they must reinvent themselves - which will be difficult because the party isn't only out of ideas, but also political talents.
- The campaign, no matter how surprising the result, was as bizarre as it was inward. The nation talked alot about municipal services (in parliamentary elections!), advertisemens, blogging, YouTube and Matti Vanhanen's women, but basically nothing about taxation, globalisation, energy policy, or Finland's place in the EU. It was especially the Korhola/Forsius/Vanhanen episode that left me a scaringly Kafkaesque aftertaste of all this.
Sounds much like the UK's last general election - not so much in the campaign itself as the result. That too, on the surface, could have seemed fairly predictable (let's face it, Labour were always going to win a third term) - but following it closely through the night it was the little things that stood out (the odd shifts in constituency holdings, the occasional bizarre upset and the like) and made the whole affair seem utterly weird.
Short version: close elections are fun. As long as you don't have too much invested in them, of course...
I think that the National Coalition has a lot to thank Niinistö and his (almost) successful presidential campaign for its success. 60 000 votes explains a lot.
The Centre fell victim of "running the states affairs" rather than those of its supporters.
The SDP suffered from the same phenomenon but there certainly was something extra going on as well. Perhaps quite a few more Finns have, indeed, started thinking that something new has to be tried amidst all this globalization and what not. Leftist conservatism looks hollow when new jobs go to students instead of the unemployed, when more and more people has to accept "shitty jobs" and so on.
The Greens managed to capitalize poorly on the recent "environmental boom". The Left Alliance did perhaps surprisingly well taking into account that now even the most naive must know who Jaakko Laakso and co really are.
By the way, taxes were, in my opinion, discussed a lot - albeit only as sort of a side issue. And municipal services have a lot to do with parliamentary elections: the most expensive services are rarely voluntary and they are often financed partly by the sate.
By the way, taxes were, in my opinion, discussed a lot - albeit only as sort of a side issue.
I was personally longing for a debate on taxation structures - now it was almost entirely about the death tax and all kind of nuances. The Greens were the only party who were ready to take on the structures themselves, moving the emphasis from incomes to consumption.
I wanted my answers and asked from many Coalition candidates, for example, what they would do for the property tax, and they mainly answered that if it'll be up for them they'll lower it.
So I got my answers. I didn't like them.
Though let me admit that my own perception - that Finland can sustainably slash her income taxes only if it either A) balances it by raising some other taxes or B) deciding what services it will no longer provide publically - isn't very widespread in this country.
the most expensive services are rarely voluntary and they are often financed partly by the sate.
As for services, I was also hoping for some kind of structural debate. Maybe I'm a bad listener, but I don't think anyone even suggested to abolish the provision of some services in order to afford some others better. And how many times was the word 'voucher' mentioned?
Vote-killers, for sure, but new circumstances ask for new thinking.
The situation of the Green League, by the way, is now quite tricky. Besides the fact that their party leader didn't get elected, the very likely centre-right government will try to introduce both the 6th nuclear reactor and tuition fees for non-European students, and both are issues that wouldn't go down too smoothly in their ranks. I wonder what's their appetite for compromises this time.
Re Greens and the Left Alliance, whereas the former had their best result ever, the latter had their worst result ever, even counting the final election as communists. Maybe expectations were even higher for the Greens and even lower for the Leftists, but I would still argue that the Greens should be a lot happier with their result. An added bonus for the Greens is that the top two government parties will have 101 seats at most, which is a lot better for their government chances than if the figure was 108.
Re Niinistö, the Coalition boosted their support in Uusimaa by 5.4 percentage points. That's way more than the national average, but less than their increase in Helsinki (+6.0) and Etelä-Savo (+5.5). To me that suggests that Niinistö drew a lot of votes that would have went to the Coalition anyway. Of course he helped the party nationally by appearing in their ads.
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